2010 Southland Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/08/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eight Southland Conference teams will gather in Katy, Texas this week to compete for a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The quarterfinal round, featuring all eight teams, will take place on Wednesday, followed by semifinal action on Thursday. After a day of rest, the last two teams standing will compete for the tournament title on Saturday afternoon.

There are 12 teams in the league, and the bottom four (Northwestern State, McNeese State, Central Arkansas and Lamar) missed the cut for this event. Sam Houston State enters as the top seed after winning 14 of 16 conference tilts during the regular season, three games better than second-seeded Stephen F. Austin. Third-seeded Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and fourth-seeded Southeastern Louisiana were 10-6 versus league foes, so they certainly have to be viewed as threats. As for fifth-seeded Texas State, sixth-seeded Texas-San Antonio and seventh-seeded UT-Arlington, all were at least .500 in league play. In fact, the only participant in the tournament that lost more league games than it won during the regular season is eighth-seeded Nicholls State. Last season, Stephen F. Austin won the title, and eight different programs have captured the crown over the last eight years, making this tournament one to watch.

The first of four quarterfinal-round matchups pits the second-seeded Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks against the seventh-seeded UT-Arlington Mavericks. The Lumberjacks won the only regular-season meeting with the Mavericks by a 72-65 final on January 20th. As mentioned, Stephen F. Austin won the title a year ago by beating Texas-San Antonio by 11 points in the championship game. That crown was the first for the Lumberjacks, who are a modest 10-11 all-time at this event. They are coming off a loss to Texas-San Antonio in the regular- season finale and need to bounce back strong. As for the Mavericks, they closed out the regular season with a three-game losing skid and are just 13-23 all-time in this tournament. However, they did win the championship in 2008, so the taste of success still lingers. UT-Arlington is scoring 74.6 ppg, significantly better than Stephen F. Austin's 66.9 ppg, but the Lumberjacks are the best defensive team in the league (60.1 ppg), while the Mavericks rank near the bottom (73.4 ppg). Marquez Haynes is the man to watch in this matchup, as he is UTA's best player and the league's leading scorer (22.8 ppg).

Another quarterfinal pairing features the third-seeded Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders against the sixth-seeded Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners. UTSA is the best free-throw shooting team in the conference (.756) and tops in three-point percentage defense as well. As for Corpus Christi, it leads the conference in rebounding margin (+5.3 rpg). The Islanders, a relative newcomer to the league, captured their lone Southland Tournament title in 2007 and is 4-1 at this event. The Roadrunners have won this event twice, most recently in 2004, and are 14-13 in Southland Tournament tilts. Corpus Christi and San Antonio split a pair of meetings during the regular season and are evenly matched. Neither team possess an individual ranked in the top 10 in the league in scoring.

The top-seeded Sam Houston State Bearkats are obviously favored in their quarterfinal matchup with the eighth-seeded Nicholls State Colonels, but it should be pointed out that the lone regular-season encounter between the two teams resulted in a rather narrow 75-69 victory for SHSU. The Bearkats have won this event only one time (2003) and are 8-11 all-time in Southland tourney games. As for Nicholls State, it has captured the crown twice, most recently in 1998. The Colonels are far from pushovers, as they possess the league's second-leading scorer in Anatoly Bose (20.4 ppg), as well as the ninth-leading scorer in Fred Hunter (14.1 ppg). Sam Houston State boasts the fourth and fifth top point producers in the league in Clavell Gilberto and Corey Allmond, who are generating 16.9 ppg and 16.3 ppg, respectively. The Bearkats are the top scoring team in the league (80.8 ppg), and Nicholls State (65.9 ppg) ranks 11th.

Rounding out the quarterfinals is a clash between the fourth-seeded Southeastern Louisiana Lions and the fifth-seeded Texas State Bobcats. These teams met just once during the regular season, and Southeastern Louisiana won that showdown by a 75-66 final. The Bobcats closed out the regular season with three straight victories and figure to enter this event with some confidence. They have won this tournament twice, but the most recent title came back in 1997, and the club is just 9-13 all-time at the event. Texas State is second in the conference in scoring (77.1 ppg), but the club is next-to-last in scoring defense (77.8 ppg). Cameron Johnson paces the Bobcats with 14.3 ppg, and he is fifth in the league in rebounding (7.9 rpg). The Lions pride themselves on strong defensive play, as they are yielding only 65.8 ppg while holding foes to a league-best 39.5 percent shooting from the floor. Patrick Sullivan paces Southeastern Louisiana with 15.7 ppg, and he is shooting 53.1 percent from the field while ripping down 8.7 rpg.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.