11/11/2008 - Miami, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of only five undefeated teams remaining at the Football Bowl Subdivision level, the 14th-ranked Ball State Cardinals will try to keep their perfect campaign going versus the Miami-Ohio RedHawks in a Mid-American Conference battle at Yager Stadium on Tuesday night. The Cardinals enter the contest fresh off another convincing victory, as they defeated Northern Illinois, 45-14, last Wednesday.
"Obviously it was a good win and a good conference win for us last night," stated head coach Brady Hoke after the contest. "It was a really good team win."
With the victory, BSU improved to 9-0 on the year, matching the best start in school history. The Cardinals have won each of their games by at least 12 points this season. At 5-0 in the conference, BSU is tied with Central Michigan atop the MAC's West Division standings and the two teams are set to square off on November 19th.
As for Miami, it hasn't enjoyed much success this season, posting just two wins against seven losses. The team was last in action a week ago when it dropped a 37-17 decision at Buffalo. It was the second loss in a row for the RedHawks, who fell to 1-4 in conference. This will be Miami's first game against a nationally-ranked foe since 2005 and the program is in search of its first victory over a Top-25 opponent since defeating Bowling Green, 33-10, in 2003.
Tuesday's game marks the 27th meeting between Miami and Ball State on the gridiron, with the ReHawks holding a 16-9-1 edge in the series. Miami won last season's meeting, 14-13, but BSU came out on top the previous year, 20-17, in Oxford.
The Cardinals are effective as well as efficient on offense, as they are averaging 38.3 ppg behind 458.4 total ypg. BSU has displayed good balance between the run (194.1 ypg) and pass (264.3 ypg), and has done a great job in protecting the ball, committing just eight turnovers. In their last outing, the Cardinals dialed up 529 yards of total offense, including 219 on the ground, in a thumping of NIU.
"I thought we did well offensively," stated coach Hoke. "From an offensive perspective you are playing the number one ranked defense in the conference in every category and ninth nationally against the score which gets your blood pumping a little bit. If you are any kind of a competitor you don't want to listen to that all week."
Quarterback Nate Davis was simply sensational in picking apart NIU's stout defense, completing 18-of-22 tosses for 300 yards and four touchdowns. He also had a rushing touchdown. It was another strong effort from Davis, who has completed 68.0 percent of his pass attempts for 2,358 yards, with 19 touchdowns and only five interceptions this season. Louis Johnson was his main target with six catches for 165 yards and a touchdown, but Davis has done a good job in spreading the ball around this season. In the backfield, MiQuale Lewis put together another solid performance last week, rushing for 119 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. With that effort, Lewis cracked the 1,000-yard plateau (1,108) for the season and he has also scored an impressive 15 touchdowns.
Defensively, BSU has done a great job in keeping opposing clubs off the scoreboard and the team hasn't allowed a foe to score over 20 points in any of its last six outings. Overall, the Cardinals are giving up just 15.3 ppg for the season despite allowing 342.6 total ypg. In its prior contest, BSU put forth another solid effort on defense, limiting NIU to just 275 total yards and only two touchdowns. The Cardinals forced two turnovers and recorded a pair of sacks, while allowing NIU to convert just 3-of-12 third down chances. Sean Baker had six stops and a forced fumble for BSU in the win. He has been outstanding for the program this season and paces the team with 70 tackles and four interceptions.
The RedHawks have had some struggles on offense this season, as they come into the game producing just 18.3 ppg and 326.1 total ypg. The offense hasn't had all that much success running or protecting the ball, averaging just 116.0 ypg on the ground with 20 turnovers, including 12 lost fumbles. Miami managed 383 total yards, but committed two turnovers in a 37-17 loss to Buffalo the last time out. Redshirt freshman Clay Belton threw for 178 yards and rushed for a score to pace the RedHawks. He, however, was injured in the game and replaced by Daniel Raudabaugh, who passed for 63 yards on eight completions. With Belton ruled out for this game, Raudabaugh will take over as starter and he has plenty of experience, passing for 1,252 yards and four scores on the season. The RedHawks don't have a go-to receiver, so expect Raudabaugh to utilize all of his options. In the backfield, Thomas Merriweather (482 yards), J.R. Taylor (328) and Andre Bratton (261) are the primary options for Miami. With Merriweather out of action last game, Taylor led the way with 69 yards and a score on 16 carries, while Bratton checked in with 59 yards on seven attempts.
Miami hasn't had that much success in stopping opposing clubs either, allowing 30.9 ppg and 358.9 total ypg. The unit has really struggled against the run, surrendering 178.0 ypg and 18 touchdowns. Creating big plays has also been an issue for the RedHawks, who have forced a mere 10 turnovers and recorded only 11 sacks. In its last contest, Miami was abused for 476 total yards, including 216 on the ground, in a loss to Buffalo. The defense failed to generate a turnover and came up with just one sack, while watching Buffalo hit on 9-of-15 third down opportunities. Clayton Mullins paced the team in defeat with 11 stops, while Joey Hudson was limited to just three tackles. On the season, though, Hudson tops the roster with 83 tackles and Mullins is a close second with 77.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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