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02/05/2012 - Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A goal in each half from Fabio Borini helped Roma to a comfortable 4-0 win over Inter Milan at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday.
Juan put Roma in front after 13 minutes when he headed home Francesco Totti's corner kick, while Borini added a second goal shortly before the break after being set up by Miralem Pjanic.
The lead was stretched to 3-0 early in the second half when Juan's long ball was tracked down by Borini, who got into the penalty area and slotted his shot past goalkeeper Julio Cesar.
The visitors had no answer for Roma's attack and the hosts grabbed a fourth goal in the final minutes as Bojan Krkic beat three defenders before firing his shot past Cesar to cap the emphatic win.
Roma remains in sixth with the victory but closes to within two points of Inter, which has claimed just one point from its last three matches following a seven-game winning streak.
AC Milan 0, Napoli 0
Milan, Italy - AC Milan was held to a 0-0 draw at the San Siro by Napoli on Sunday in a match that saw Milan striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic sent off midway through the second half.
The result leaves the Rossoneri one point back of leaders Juventus, which also finished in a 0-0 draw on Sunday against Siena. Napoli is now winless in its last five games and stays in seventh place in Serie A.
Chances were at a premium on Sunday and Milan had the best one in the 51st minute when Robinho was played in on goal by Ibrahimovic but failed to beat goalkeeper Morgan De Sanctis.
The Napoli 'keeper did well to deny Ibrahimovic in the 63rd minute and the Swede soon received his marching orders for slapping Napoli's Salvatore Aronica.
Despite being up a man Napoli was unable to find the net and the club's winless streak was extended for another week.
Genoa 3, Lazio 2
Genoa, Italy - Bosko Jankovic netted two goals and Genoa held off a late charge from Lazio to secure a 3-2 win at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium on Sunday.
Rodrigo Palacio tallied the opener in the 10th minute and Jankovic doubled the lead midway through the first half with his first goal of the match.
Jankovic added to Lazio's misery when he scored in the opening seconds after the break to make it 3-0.
But Lazio pulled a goal back in the 54th minute from the penalty spot courtesy of Cristian Ledesma before the capital side was reduced to 10 men with Mobido Diakite being sent off eight minutes from time.
A goal from Alvaro Gonzalez in the 90th minute made it a one-goal game, but there wasn't enough time left for Lazio to muster a third goal, snapping a run of three wins in four games for the visitors.
Parma 2, Chievo 1
Verona, Italy - Parma moved further away from the relegation zone on Sunday after Siqueira Luciano's own goal handed the club a 2-1 win at Chievo.
Sebastian Giovinco's ninth goal of the season just after halftime gave Parma the lead, but his opener was canceled out four minutes later by Cyril Thereau.
Parma pressed hard for a second goal and was rewarded with a bit of good fortune in the 69th minute when Giovinco's shot took a deflection off of Luciano and found its way inside the right post.
The visitors move 10 points clear of the drop zone with the win and ahead of Chievo on goal difference.
Fiorentina 3, Udinese 2
Florence, Italy - Udinese failed to close the gap on the top two teams in Serie A on Sunday after sustaining a 3-2 defeat at Fiorentina.
Juventus and AC Milan were both held to 0-0 draws on Sunday, meaning that Udinese could close to within a point of the top spot with a win.
And things started well for the visitors who took the lead inside 15 minutes with a goal from Antonio Di Natale.
However, things turned around in the 39th minute when Stevan Jovetic converted a penalty kick to level the match at halftime before Mattia Cassani tallied his first goal of the season to put the Viola in front.
Jovetic then netted another goal from the penalty spot six minutes from time before Gabriel Torje pulled one back in the 89th for Udinese, which sits four points back of leaders Juventus.
Fiorentina is in the midst of its best run of the season having claimed 10 points from its last five games.
Juventus 0, Siena 0
Turin, Italy - Juventus remained on top of Serie A on Sunday despite being held to a 0-0 draw by a stubborn Siena team.
A 0-0 draw by AC Milan with Napoli keeps Juve one point clear at the top of the league. Siena moves three points above the drop zone with Sunday's result.
Juventus dominated possession but failed to generate many decent scoring chances, and it was Siena that nearly stole all three points in the final minutes of the match.
A shot from Pablo Gonzalez was saved by Juve goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon, but the rebound was left for Alessandro Gazzi, who fired over the net from close range.
Lecce 0, Bologna 0
Lecce, Italy - Lecce and Bologna battled to a 0-0 draw at the Via del Mare on Sunday as both sides continue their relegation struggle.
Bologna entered the day five points above the drop zone and unbeaten in its last four games, while Lecce had collected seven points from its last four games to greatly improve its chances of survival.
However, neither side was able to pick up three valuable points, although Lecce had the best chance eight minutes after halftime.
Luis Muriel rounded Bologna goalkeeper Jean Francois Gillet, but fired his shot over the empty net, while Lecce's chances were greatly reduced in the 74th minute when Morris Carrozzieri was sent off.
Novara 0, Cagliari 0
Novara, Italy - Novara snapped a five-game losing streak on Sunday but still had to settle for a 0-0 draw at home against Cagliari, which does little to enhance its chances of survival.
Novara remains on the bottom of the league and seven points from safety with the result, although it took some good goalkeeping from Cagliari's Michael Agazzi to keep them out.
Novara had two good chances to claim all three points but both times Agazzi was up to the task as he first denied a powerful shot from Santiago Garcia before making a stop on Simone Pesce at full stretch.
Palermo 2, Atalanta 1
Palermo, Italy - Palermo's unbeaten streak reached four games on Sunday as the club recorded a 2-1 win over 10-man Atalanta at the Renzo Barbera.
The match took a major turn in the 25th minute when Atalanta goalkeeper Andrea Consigli was sent off for bringing down Palermo striker Fabrizio Miccoli inside the penalty area.
Miccoli picked himself up and converted the spot kick before Igor Budan made it 2-0 early in the second half.
Maximiliano Moralez pulled a goal back for Atalanta in the 56th minute, but didn't have enough left for an equalizer, which leaves the visitors with four losses from their last five games.
<< Penny signs with Japanese club
Fukuoka, Japan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran pitcher Brad Penny has signed a
contract to play with the SoftBank Hawks of Japan's Pacific League, the team
announced on its website.
Penny spent last season with the Detroit Tigers, pitchi
<< Youzhny whips Lacko for Zagreb title
Zagreb, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Russian Mikhail Youzhny cruised past
Slovakian Lukas Lacko in straight sets in Sunday's final at the Zagreb Indoors
tennis event.
The third-seeded world No. 39 Youzhny doused the unseeded Lacko 6-2,
<< Aceves, Red Sox avoid arbitration
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox and pitcher Alfredo Aceves
have agreed to terms on a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration with the 29-
year-old relief pitcher.
The deal is worth a reported $1.2 million with an add
<< Berdych beats Monfils for title in France
Montpellier, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Wimbledon runner-up Tomas
Berdych outlasted French crowd favorite Gael Monfils in Sunday's title match
at the Open Sud de France tennis tournament.
The top-seeded world No. 7 Berdych
Serbs overcome Belgians to reach Fed Cup SFs >>
Charleroi, Belgium (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serbia got a tie-clinching doubles win
from Bojana Jovanovski and Aleksandra Krunic on Sunday in order to reach the
2012 Fed Cup semifinals. The Serbs won their best-of-five quarterfinal against
host Be
Celtics handle Grizzlies, earn fourth straight win >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Garnett had 24 points and nine rebounds as
the Boston Celtics handled the Memphis Grizzlies, 98-80, at TD Garden.
Paul Pierce added 21 points while Ray Allen and Chris Wilcox each netted 12 as
the Celtics
Serena leads U.S. past Belarus >>
Worcester, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serena Williams recorded a Sunday singles
victory to move the United States into the Fed Cup World Group Playoffs.
The 2011 U.S. Open runner-up Williams improved to 2-0 this week by overcoming
Anastasia Y
No. 9 Michigan State defeats No. 23 Michigan >>
East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Draymond Green had 14 points and 16
rebounds, as No. 9 Michigan State earned a convincing 64-54 win over No. 23
Michigan on Sunday.
Keith Appling and Branden Dawson both added 10 points for the
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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