11/12/2008 - Colorado Springs, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked BYU Cougars hit the road for the first of two outings to close out the regular season as they challenge the Air Force Falcons in Mountain West Conference play in Colorado Springs.
BYU, which still has a date with undefeated Utah on tap for November 22nd in Salt Lake City, has managed to bounce back from its only loss of the season to TCU back on October 16th in Fort Worth (32-7). But while the Cougars have dialed up at least 41 points in each of the last three victories, two of those have been by a combined 10 points versus UNLV and Colorado State. However, more recently the Cougars left no doubt as they crushed San Diego State in Provo last Saturday in a 41-12 decision. The win was the ninth in 10 tries for BYU, which trails both the Utes and Horned Frogs in the MWC standings at the moment and has now posted 18 straight home wins to establish a new program record.
Meanwhile the Falcons, who are tied with BYU for third place in the MWC at 5-1, they've put together the second-longest win streak among the conference members at five games. Since dropping back-to-back efforts versus Utah and Navy at home, the Falcons have managed to run their overall record to 8-2, thanks in part to a 38-17 demolition of Colorado State at home last Saturday. Like the Cougars, Air Force closes out the regular season next week against a very tough opponent in TCU in Fort Worth.
Last year, BYU had little trouble with the academy in a 31-6 triumph, stretching its lead in the all-time series to 22-6 with its fourth straight win over the Falcons.
Max Hall misfired on just five of his 30 pass attempts last Saturday, posting 317 yards and three touchdowns as he and the Cougars rolled over San Diego State by 29 points at home. Austin Collie, who entered the game as the nation's top receiver in terms of total yards and yards per game, picked up 127 yards on nine catches, giving him his eighth straight 100-yard game and the 14th of his career (the latter making Collie the MWC's all-time leader).
With regard to this week's matchup against Air Force, head coach Bronco Mendenhall sees a lot of his Cougars in the academy's defensive approach. "Similar in scheme to what we play, other than they pressure more and its almost all zone pressure. Very seldom do they line up in a given front and play that front," which means Hall will have to be on his toes when reading the defense and checking off receivers when the Falcons switch their looks.
Yet, as much as the Falcons may make changes at the point of attack, the fact remains that Hall is still one of the most productive passers in all of college football this season with his 71.1 percent accuracy and 32 touchdowns, against just seven picks. Should Air Force find a way to shut down Collie (78 catches, 1,185 yards, 13 TDs), Dennis Pitta (67 receptions, 879 yards, six TDs) is right there to fill the gap.
From a defensive standpoint, the Cougars managed to pick off a Ryan Lindley pass in the second quarter, the signal-caller's first in 67 attempts, and limited the Aztecs to just 280 yards of offense overall. Senior linebacker David Nixon, who was credited with that one pick for the BYU defense, also tallied a career-best 14 tackles.
"I was proud of the seniors today,"coach Mendenhall said after the game. "It is three years straight that we haven't lost at home and I think we've accomplished a lot to set the foundation of our program."
Nixon has been a huge part of the BYU pressure this season, placing second on the unit with his 67 tackles, while recording a team-best three picks and tying for the lead with 9.5 tackles for loss. The Cougars have been rather average when it comes to TFLs, averaging 6.1 per game, and are fourth in the conference in sacks with two per outing as well. Nevertheless, the group has been stifling more often than not in 2008, holding as many as five opponents to two touchdowns or less, which is how the squad has risen to 19th in the country with just 18.2 ppg allowed.
Asher Clark took command of the running game for the Falcons last Saturday as he raced for a game-high 136 yards and scored twice in the win over Colorado State. The academy as a whole recorded 284 yards and three touchdowns on 51 attempts, while quarterback Tim Jefferson managed to produce an astounding 171 yards and two touchdowns out of only six completed passes. Kyle Halderman, who was the only player with more than a single catch, finished with 99 yards and a score on two receptions. With passing plays such a rare commodity at Air Force, the eight grabs by Halderman this season actually have him in a tie for third on the team and he is first in TD catches with three.
Obviously, as it has been for so long in Colorado Springs, the Falcons operate almost solely on the ground with 275.4 ypg, ranking them first in the conference and fourth in the country this week. If nothing else, the ability to take the ball and run on each and every play has kept opponents from breaking into the backfield with an regularity, which has led to a mere 0.20 sacks allowed, easily the top mark in the FBS.
Except for the second quarter when the Rams controlled the ball for almost 13 minutes, the defense for Air Force seemed to be well-rested and up to the challenge of shutting down Colorado State. The secondary did allow a hefty 251 yards passing and a score, but the group also intercepted two passes and helped out as the run defense surrendered just 103 yards on 30 attempts. Not only were Reggie Rembert and Ken Lamendola tied for the team lead with 10 tackles, they each registered an interception as well.
CSU head coach Steve Fairchild acknowledged just how tough the Air Force defense can be, "We just kind of fell apart there a little bit in the third quarter. We made some bad decisions. We missed a couple of things protection wise and ended up turning the ball over a couple of times and thats all it took for this thing to get out of hand."
The pass defense for the Falcons is now first in the conference and 10th nationally with only 167.2 ypg allowed. Perhaps just as impressive is the fact that Air Force has recorded 10 interceptions in 10 games, the same number of touchdowns the program has permitted through the air thus far.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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