11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Strong play at the Georgia Dome has helped the Atlanta Falcons become one of the NFL's most improved teams of the 2008 season. It's also a place where the Carolina Panthers have enjoyed visiting in recent years.
The first-place Panthers will attempt to defeat the Falcons on the road for a fourth consecutive year in this Sunday's clash between the two NFC South inhabitants.
While Atlanta is clearly moving in the right direction under the first-year regime of head coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff, the Falcons have not garnered much success in their encounters with the rival Panthers as of late. Carolina has emerged victorious in five of the last seven matchups between the clubs, and easily handled upstart Atlanta in a Week 4 clash in Charlotte back on September 30.
The Panthers also carry a four-game overall winning streak into this important divisional test and own a sparkling 8-2 season record, which trails only the 9-1 New York Giants for the best mark in the NFC. Carolina had won eight of its first 10 games only once previously in the franchise's 14-year history, and the club made its lone Super Bowl appearance that season after finishing 11-5 and atop the NFC South in 2003.
Carolina hasn't exactly been overwhelming the competition lately, however. The team overcame a horrendously bad performance by usually-steady quarterback Jake Delhomme to produce a 17-6 triumph over offensively-challenged Oakland in Week 10, then had to rally from an early 10-point deficit in a 31-22 home decision against winless Detroit this past Sunday.
The Panthers prevailed last week by hanging a team-record 264 rushing yards on the Lions' shoddy defense, with both rookie Jonathan Stewart and emerging star DeAngelo Williams running for over 120 yards and combining for a trio of touchdowns.
Carolina puts its unbeaten run on the line against an Atlanta squad that won its first four outings at the Georgia Dome this season before being edged by AFC West-leading Denver by a 24-20 count a week ago. The lead changed hands three times during a see-saw second half, with the Broncos moving in front to stay on a Jay Cutler touchdown pass with 5:35 left to play.
Atlanta, which had posted two straight victories prior to last Sunday's setback, fell two games behind the front-running Panthers in the NFC South standings but remains squarely in the conference playoff mix with a 6-4 record. The Falcons have not dropped back-to-back contests yet this season.
SERIES HISTORY
Atlanta leads the all-time series with Carolina, 16-11, but was a 24-9 road loser when the teams met in Week 4. The teams embarked on an unconventional home-and-home split of last year's series, with the Falcons coming up a 27-20 home loser when the teams met in Week 3, but going to Charlotte and earning a 20-13 upset victory in Week 10. The Panthers are 3-0 in Atlanta since last losing there in 2004. Carolina last swept the Falcons in a home-and-home in 2005.
Panthers head coach John Fox enters Sunday's contest with a 6-7 career mark against Atlanta, while Smith is 0-1 against both Fox and Carolina as a head coach.
WHEN THE PANTHERS HAVE THE BALL
While Delhomme is in the midst of a puzzling slump, Carolina's running game has flourished over the past few weeks to counteract the veteran quarterback's shaky showings. Williams (782 rushing yards, 13 receptions, 6 total TD) surpassed the century mark for a third straight game with a 120-yard, two- touchdown effort on just 14 carries against the Lions, and the third-year back is averaging a stellar 7.4 yards per attempt over that tremendous stretch. Stewart (513 rushing yards, 6 TD, 5 receptions) was equally as impressive as his counterpart last week, as the first-round selection racked up a career- best 130 yards and a score on 15 totes. The Panthers rank sixth in the NFL in rushing offense (133.7 ypg) and are averaging a robust 170.5 yards per game on the ground during their four-game win streak.
Carolina's recent excellence in running the football doesn't bode well for a Atlanta stop unit that is surrendering 4.9 yards per rush attempt for the season, one of the worst marks in the league. Opposing backs have too often gotten to the second level on the Falcons, as evidenced by the fact that safeties Lawyer Milloy (60 tackles, 1 INT) and Erik Coleman (58 tackles, 3 INT) each rank among the team's top three tacklers. Rookie Curtis Lofton (61 tackles, 1 sack) leads the club in stops and has put together a solid debut season at the critical middle linebacker spot. Atlanta's 22nd-rated run defense (119.6 ypg) did a decent job of bottling up Williams and Stewart back in Week 4, with the duo managing 109 yards on 30 carries for the game.
Fox is keeping his fingers crossed that Delhomme (1951 passing yards, 11 TD, 9 INT) resembles the quarterback who shredded the Falcons for 294 yards and two scores on 20-of-29 passing earlier in the year, and not the one who failed to throw for more than 100 yards in either of Carolina's last two tilts and was picked off four times in the Oakland game. A return to form from aging wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad (41 receptions, 3 TD), who recorded season-highs with eight catches and 147 yards against Atlanta in September but hasn't been much of factor lately, would likely boost his struggling triggerman's prospects as well. Delhomme's troubles have helped teams neutralize playmaking wideout Steve Smith (40 receptions, 681 yards, 4 TD), as the dynamic receiver had three straight 100-yard games before his quarterback went into his two-week funk.
The Falcons have tightened up their pass defense since their last showdown with Carolina and did a respectable job against Denver's dangerous aerial attack in Week 11, with Cutler compiling the majority of his 216 yards on underneath routes. Atlanta only sacked the standout quarterback once last week, however, and did not get to Delhomme at all in the teams' previous meeting. End John Abraham (26 tackles, 11 sacks) has put together a banner season thus far, but the premier pass-rusher has been bothered by a shoulder stinger that has cut into his playing time in recent weeks. Atlanta's improvement versus the pass has coincided with the insertion of former Bronco Domonique Foxworth (14 tackles) into a starting role opposite athletic sophomore Chris Houston (32 tackles, 2 INT, 8 PD) at midseason.
WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL
Atlanta will also be looking to establish the run on Sunday, a key element in the team's rapid ascension from league doormat to playoff hopeful. The Falcons trail only the juggernaut New York Giants in rushing offense (153.4 ypg), while workhorse Michael Turner (971 rushing yards, 9 TD, 4 receptions) is closing in on his first career 1,000-yard campaign. The 244-pound battering ram is the thunder part of the Falcons' inside-outside combo, with darter Jerious Norwood (383 rushing yards, 24 receptions, 3 total TD) the big-play threat who has also made his mark as a receiver out of the backfield and an impact kick returner. Turner has put together four 100-yard games this season but has just one over the past five contests, leading to speculation he's wearing down some due to a career-high workload.
The Falcons have displayed good offensive balance this season, thanks to the head-turning play of Rookie of the Year candidate Matt Ryan (2159 passing yards, 11 TD, 6 INT) under center. The 23-year-old quarterback has been remarkably efficient in directing an offense that has committed just eight turnovers in 10 games, and he's done his best work under the roof of the Georgia Dome. Ryan has posted an excellent 110.1 passer rating in Atlanta's five home games and thrown only one interception over that span, while getting adequate protection from an offensive line that's allowed only 12 sacks so far this year. Talented wide receiver Roddy White (58 receptions, 903 yards, 6 TD) registered his fifth 100-yard day of the season with a five-catch, 102-yard total against the Broncos and teams with former first-round choice Michael Jenkins (29 receptions, 3 TD) to give Ryan a capable pair of pass-catchers. Oft-injured veteran Brian Finneran (13 receptions) has been contributing lately as well, having established season-bests with four catches and 44 receiving yards in last Sunday's defeat.
Atlanta will need to upgrade its production from its previous meeting with the Panthers in order to come away with a victory on Sunday, as the Falcons mustered only 268 total yards and failed to reach the end zone in that Week 4 battle. That type of output has often been par for the course for teams facing Carolina's stout defense this year. The Panthers are yielding a mere 15.5 points per game (3rd overall), rank fifth in the NFL against the pass (185.4 ypg), and were able to frustrate Ryan into a lackluster showing back in September. The rookie will surely be paying close attention to pass-rusher extraordinaire Julius Peppers (34 tackles, 9 sacks), the league's leader with five forced fumbles who has amassed five sacks over the last two weeks from his right end position. The three-time Pro Bowler's dominance up front has aided a secondary that possesses a pair of quality cover men in cornerbacks Chris Gamble (63 tackles, 2 INT, 14 PD) and Ken Lucas (30 tackles, 2 INT, 9 PD).
Turner failed to find much running room in the teams' earlier matchup, with the Panthers limiting the powerful back to 56 yards on 18 carries. However, Detroit's weak ground game was able to get untracked against Carolina last week, with rookie Kevin Smith bursting through for a personal-best 112 yards on 24 carries on the afternoon. The Panthers are 17th in the league versus the run with an average of 107.6 yards allowed per game and have missed the presence of departed tackle Kris Jenkins, who's enjoying an All-Pro caliber season with the Jets after being dealt by the Cats in February. Linebackers Jon Beason (84 tackles, 2 INT) and Thomas Davis (72 tackles, 1.5 sacks) stand 1-2 on the team in tackles and will be in charge of keeping Atlanta's formidable backfield tandem in check on Sunday.
FANTASY FOCUS
Running backs will take center stage in this pivotal divisional showdown, and the best of the bunch is Williams, who stands a reasonable chance of putting up a fourth straight 100-yard game against an Atlanta defense that's somewhat soft against the run. Turner has established himself as an every-week fantasy starter for the Falcons and should have better numbers than his mediocre total in Week 4, but don't be surprised if Norwood is sprinkled in a little more on Sunday to keep Turner fresh down the stretch. Norwood would become a usable flex play under that scenario, but Stewart owners shouldn't read too much into the rookie's huge day against the woeful Lions. Keep him on the bench if at all possible. As for the quarterbacks, Delhomme is too risky to start right now and Ryan's only a lukewarm choice against a tough Carolina pass defense. Each team has a top-tier wideout, as the Panthers' Steve Smith and Atlanta's White are both must-plays, but the rest of the receiving crop doesn't offer much upside.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Both clubs have some questions that need to be answered heading into this season's stretch drive, and we should get a better read on each following Sunday's outcome. Carolina keeps winning games but hasn't wowed anyone with its victories over pushovers Oakland and Detroit following its Week 9 bye, while the Falcons haven't beaten any team that's currently sporting a winning record, having gone 0-4 in previous encounters with the Panthers, Buccaneers, Eagles and Broncos. The Panthers' so-so recent performances have coincided with Delhomme's struggles, and a bounce-back for the hard-nosed quarterback is imperative if Carolina wants to leave the Georgia Dome a winner. He'll rebound on Sunday, which combined with the NFC South leaders' strong running game and ferocious defense makes the Panthers a little too much for the still- developing Falcons to handle.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Panthers 20, Falcons 13
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers SPORTS TRASH TALK
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)
"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."
Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins
There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins
Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.
USC Trojans - 10.5 wins
A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.
Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy
Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.
"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."
Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1
The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1
If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.
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