Line of Scrimmage: The T.O. Factor

Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given their recent history of off-the-field problems, it's tempting to quip that the Cincinnati Bengals' signing of Terrell Owens is an attempt to improve the team's character.

It's natural to laugh at an organization where the imbalanced patients have run the asylum for so long, and where the man who made the Owens signing, longtime team president Mike Brown, has often seemed to be constructed with a couple fewer screws that his contemporaries around the league.

The marriage between Cincinnati and the radioactive Owens, hot on the heels of the offseason signings of Matt Jones and Pacman Jones, is more grist for the mill of those who would argue that the Bengals don't get it, and don't understand that character and chemistry are important components in the effort to win championships.

I say hogwash. Every successful NFL franchise takes chances, and if the Bengals wish to post back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since 1981-82, they know they had better do the same.

There were 12 playoff teams in 2009, and the Bengals were the 12th-best among them by the time the postseason actually hit. They peaked in Weeks 9-10, completing sweeps of the Ravens and Steelers and holding on for dear life thereafter. Cincinnati went 3-5 in its final eight games - the wins coming over the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs - and was outclassed by the Jets in the first round of the postseason.

Playing the same hand was not going to result in a royal flush, and Brown and head coach Marvin Lewis knew it. So, an offense that was 26th in passing in '09 sought to re-invent itself as an aerial team, with nearly every offseason move made on that side of the ball indicating that Carson Palmer will be winging it quite a bit this season.

Cincinnati signed Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones off the free agent wire, used a first-round draft pick on Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma), the top tight end in the draft, and followed up two rounds later by selecting Texas star Jordan Shipley (3rd Round, Texas). Though the offensive line remains something of a question mark after struggling to protect the plodding Palmer at times in 2009, there is hope that last year's lottery pick, tackle Andre Smith, will get in shape and be a major difference-maker up front.

In a division where the Steelers are never down long, the Ravens made similar aggressive moves (Anquan Boldin, Donte' Stallworth) with an eye on contending for a Super Bowl, and the Browns appear ready to get off the mat, Cincinnati has done exactly what was prudent for its survival.

The move to sign Owens, however controversial, was of a piece with the design of the larger blueprint. From a football standpoint, the Bengals are insulating themselves from the distinct possibility that Bryant, who has really only had one great season since entering the league in 2002, won't be sufficiently recovered from offseason knee surgery. They can hardly count on the troubled Matt Jones, who isn't even a cinch to make the team, and younger players like Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, and Shipley aren't going to scare opposing defensive coordinators the way Owens will.

Though the popular sentiment is that the 36-year-old Owens is in decline, it's important to note that he's only two years removed from a 1,000-yard, 10- touchdown season with the Cowboys. Last year in Buffalo, where the Bills had major quarterback problems and an offensive line that couldn't even enable the receivers to get out of their breaks, Owens still had 829 yards and scored six touchdowns. The guy keeps his body fine-tuned and will work hard, that much is a given.

Of course, we all know that work habits and the attention the six-time Pro Bowler commands on the field have never been the prevailing issues. What everyone wants to know is how such a hyper-sensitive narcissist is going to co- exist with his long-lost emotional twin, Chad Ochocinco, how Owens is going to react toward Palmer or offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski when he doesn't get enough touches in a given game, and how he'll handle a losing streak should one arise.

Given that Owens is a future Hall of Famer who is nonetheless playing for his fifth team in the past eight years, you can pretty much set your watch for the headline-grabbing sound byte or sideline tantrum to come. With the one-year deal they gave him, the Bengals are gambling that he'll keep the antics to a level that will enable him to return in 2011.

In light of his history, we know that the odds of things working out between Owens and the Bengals long-term are prohibitive. But in light of the checkered history of the Cincinnati Bengals, sitting on the platform and watching the train roll by isn't any more attractive an option.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back

With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.

"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."

Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .

Get all your baseball betting lines, MLB lines and MLB team props at the My Sportbook.

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