08/18/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - 2007 SEASON IN REVIEW: Another first-year head coach that struggled in his debut in the ACC was Tom O'Brien at NC State. The Wolfpack got off to a horrific start, winning just once in the first six games. However, to O'Brien's credit, the team was able to turn things around in the second half, finishing the year 5-7 overall and 3-5 in the Atlantic Division.
The season opened up with a much-improved UCF program and O'Brien's team dropped a 25-23 decision to the Knights. Losses at Boston College (37-17), against Clemson (42-20) and at Florida State (27-10) put the team in an 0-3 hole in ACC action. The Wolfpack started to come together after that, with big wins in the second half of the campaign, including a 29-24 win over a top-25 program in Virginia and a three-point overtime decision at Miami (19-16) as part of a four-game win streak. However, the team didn't close out well, with back-to-back defeats at the hands of Wake Forest (38-18) and Maryland (37-0), leaving the Wolfpack home for the holidays.
2008 ANALYSIS:
OFFENSE: The Wolfpack return six starters from last year's offense and that seemed to be a plus heading into the summer. However much like last year, NC State has been ravaged by injuries in the preseason, leaving O'Brien with some uncertainty as the season approaches. Tailback Toney Baker (knee) and wide receiver Donald Bowens (back) are significant injuries. Bowens is a season- ending injury and will be felt throughout the year.
"Losing Donald is a tough loss for the football team. When you lose your most experienced and best receiver coming back it certainly hurts you, especially when you are trying to find a quarterback," says O'Brien.
Now the team is extremely raw in the receiving corps, with sophomore Owen Spencer (five receptions, for 73 yards) as the most experienced wideout.
"They're about as green as the quarterbacks, with the exception of senior Daniel Evans," OBrien said. "Its a situation that is a work in progress. Some of those kids have to step up and make some plays."
The quarterback situation is an obvious area of concern, with Evans, redshirt freshman Russell Wilson and true freshman Mike Glennon battling it out for the starting job. Evans played to mixed reviews last season, completing 57.2 percent of his passes, for 2,030 yards, with 12 TDs and 13 INTs, but by no means has the job locked down heading into mid-August.
Although Toney Brown is banged up in the backfield, the outlook there is a little better, with returning tailbacks Jameele Eugene (667 yards and five TDs) and Andre Brown (447 yards, five TDs) ready for action.
The offensive line returns three starters, but O'Brien would like some depth up front and nothing is set in stone.
"We are still trying to find the best five guys and also find some guys who can go in and spell them so they won't have to play 82 plays or 75 plays a game. We'll be better in the long run for that," says 'O'Brien.
DEFENSE: Defensively, the Wolfpack struggled in 2007, ranking 11th in the conference in total defense (393.9 ypg) and scoring defense (28.2 ppg). The real problem came in stopping the run, something NC State did very little of last season (last in the conference at 186.4 ypg).
The team returns just four starters on the defensive side of the ball and to make matters worse, depth in the secondary has taken a hit, with Clem Johnson suffering a broken jaw, leaving him out indefinitely. Senior cornerback Jeremy Gray is the top returning tackler on the squad after posting 62 tackles and three INTs a year ago.
The linebacking corps is in need of a complete overhaul, but the hope is that sophomore Nate Irving (52 tackles, six TFLs, one sack) can build off a solid freshman season.
Up front, the team must replace Martrel Brown and DeMario Pressley, but there is a couple of playmaking juniors that can fill the void with the return of tackle Alan-Michael Cash (50 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and rush end Willie Young (48 tackles, 10 TFLs, six sacks).
SPECIAL TEAMS: The kicking game is a bit of an unknown right now as well. The punting job is secured with the return of senior Bradley Pierson, although his average of 37.2 yards per punt could use some improvement. The placekicking job however, needs new blood with the loss of Steven Hauschka, who hit 16- of-18 field-goal attempts, including a long of 49 yards last year. His replacement is sophomore Josh Czajkowski, who has been chomping at the bit to get his opportunity.
"Stephen Hauschka was a great kicker and I loved watching him kick. Just being around him and John Deraney was huge for me, because they were both so successful. It puts the idea in your head: I was waiting behind two NFL guys. I am eager to fill their shoes and get my shot."
The return game is the biggest concern on special teams. Not only did the team lose Darrell Blackman, whose career is now over in Raleigh, but the injury to Bowens leaves the team with no reliable return man.
2008 OUTLOOK: O'Brien had the luxury of a stacked team almost every year at Boston College and it will take some time for him to fill in the necessary depth at NC State. The injury bug has once again hit this team hard before the season has even started, so to get a true gauge of the Wolfpack is difficult.
The team opens up at South Carolina and that will not be an easy task. The rest of the non-conference slate includes William & Mary, East Carolina and South Florida. The Wolfpack would be lucky to split those games. The team avoids Virginia Tech altogether and gets Boston College, Florida State, Wake Forest and Miami all in Raleigh. The road games at Clemson, Maryland and North Carolina are crucial in determining if the Wolfpack can improve on their five win total from last year.
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Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year
Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.
With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.
Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.
Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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